Bulk carrier newbuilding orders slow down,Tanker charter rates show little improvement,New container ship pricesalmost restored to2008yearthe level before the financial crisis.Let's review various ship types togetherLast season's performance andLatest quarterly forecast!
The overall growth momentum of new shipbuilding orders remained strong in the third quarter, but total tonnage was lower than in the first and second quarters.
2021Year-to-date, newbuilding orders for container ships are second only to2007at a high level for the year. Newbuilding orders for bulk carriers and oil tankers began to slow down starting in the third quarter, especially in the tanker market.
The high newbuilding prices of container ships have also driven up construction costs for other vessel types. Of course, persistently high steel prices and the easing of the pandemic are also contributing factors.
However, it is expected that by next year, the boom in new orders in the container ship segment will rapidly cool down, along with the anticipated decline in steel prices.2022 The year overall will show a downward trend..
The trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global trade remain key factors shaping future markets.
Credit risk in China's real estate industry is rising., as well asGreenhouse gas emission reduction target, which will bring more uncertainty to the outlook for the ship market.
at2023Year International Maritime Organization (IMOship energy efficiency index(EEXI)and carbon intensity indicator (CIIBefore the new regulations take effect, investors and shipowners may adopt cautious strategies..
Dry bulk carriers: red-hot
The uptrend in the bulk market is mainly related to global shipping constraints, including restrictions imposed by COVID-19 prevention measures, as well as the recent rebound in commodity demand.
Rental rates for Capesize bulk carriers continued to strengthen last quarter.. The daily rental rate for this type of bulk carrier from7of the month3increased from ten thousand US dollars to9of the month6.3ten thousand US dollars.This positive earnings trend also extended to other bulk carrier ship types..
The daily rental rate for Panamax bulk carriers has stabilized at approximately3.210,000 US dollars, while supramax and handysize bulk carriers reached3.610,000 US dollars and3.1ten thousand US dollars.
Due to the sustained production cuts in China's steel industry, this year7to8The steel production in [month] decreased compared to the same period last year.10%.We expect domestic steel demand to remain weak in the fourth quarter.Demand for construction steel from China's urbanization process may have already reached its peak.
However,Economic stimulus packages in Western countries are expected to drive a recovery in iron ore demand.，and expects prices to rise..
As winter approaches, the country's electricity consumption is bound to increase. At the same time, the domestic coal mining industry is advancing safety production reforms and eliminating outdated production capacity. As a result, import quotas may be relaxed, leading to an increase in imports and thereby driving up coal prices.
As for grains, soybeans, and other minor bulk cargo trade, it will drive the growth of ton-mile demand over the next two years, and is expected to contribute this year.4.8%the increase2022year then becomes5.3%.
New shipbuilding orders have now increased to the scale of the global fleet. 6.5%. However, due to slow fleet growth and hindered supply and demand, it is expected that over the next four years,Capacity supply will grow by an average annual rate. 2%.
Due to the supply shortage possibly continuing until2023，It is estimated that the future balance of the bulk carrier shipping market will tighten and push freight rates higher..
Oil tankers: slow rebound in charter rates In the third quarter, crude oil and refined oil products, driven by recovering demand,, causing both inventory levels to decline, while production faced challenges from hurricanes such as Ida. Under the dual impact of production disruptions and soaring oil prices, there are market rumors that OPEC (OPECorganization may accelerate production increases, with the original plan being a monthly increase40A daily output of 10,000 barrels. Tanker earnings are expected to grow, but the increase in tanker supply will slow the pace of freight rate recovery.. 2021The annual average benchmark return for spot cruises will be20lowest level in years, showing the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and OPEC production cuts on the industry. New ship orders in the third quarter of this year totaled2011the lowest level in years, indicating that there will be some positive trends in the balance of capacity supply and demand in the future.. If OPEC (OPEC) will not raise the established production increase plan, then the short-term upward momentum in the oil tanker market will be somewhat limited. To achieve2023Annual greenhouse gas emission reductionIn terms of objectives, reducing ship speed will be the most mainstream method of emission reduction. This will affectimpact the effective total trade capacity of the global fleet. Expected from the end of this year to2022year,The tanker market will 2020 the year rebounded strongly from the troughThis aligns with the recovery of global liquidity trade, as well as the growth in fuel demand in the post-pandemic era.
Container ships: high volume of newbuild orders
Affected by port congestion in Europe and the Americas, supply chain disruptions, and COVID-19 prevention restrictions in Asia, freight rates reached unprecedented highs last quarter..
9 month, a 6500 TEU of a container shipThe daily rental rate reaches1010,000 US dollars，Has increased since the beginning of this year 248%.
Due to the limited number of vessels available in the short term, many ship charterers are actively seeking longer-term leases, which could extend the tightening of the market supply and demand balance.
Before the trade volume of winter consumer goods declines, disruptions in the supply chain and port congestion will continue to limit the availability of capacity, thereforeThe charter rates of container ships may be2022It only began to stabilize in the year.
U.S. imports in the fourth quarter are expected to approach the best recent record.As container demand is expected to increase by about in the spring12%, the peak of shipping costs is about to arriveAfterwards2022year,As supply chain issues are resolved, we expect shipping costs to start declining..
Expected2022-2024 In the year, the demand for container ships will maintain healthy and stable growth, with an average annual increase of about 3.5%.
At present, new orders for container ships account for a total of the fleet 17%, for 2008 the highest level since [year].
The volume of shipbreaking naturally remains at a relatively low level at present, but as the market returns to normal and the new regulations take effect,Ship dismantling activities may see a rebound.
For container ships, we have downgraded2023to2025The outlook for the year ahead reflects 2023 The potential impact of new ships entering the market at the beginning of the year.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas Ship: Stable Demand American liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) Weak exports have led to the rent of ultra-large gas carriers dropping to a monthly rate76.5Ten thousand US dollars. Its rental rate is8Although the moon is just beginning to show signs of recovery, due to the impact of Hurricane Ida on production, rent is9monthly fell to per month63Ten thousand US dollars. As for the slow export growth in the Middle East, it therefore failed to timely offset the impact brought by the reduction in U.S. export volume. 2022In the year, the export volumes of liquefied petroleum gas from the United States and the Middle East will rise, with the expected increase being2.2%and5%Similarly,In this season, the export volume of liquefied petroleum gas from the United States and the Middle East is also expected to rise.. Asia will continue to be the main destination for liquefied petroleum gas exports, but the risks of price fluctuations and trade disruptions still exist, especially with winter approaching while natural gas prices remain high. It is expected that demand for ammonia will strengthen in Asia, Africa, Europe, and South America; however, high natural gas prices may hinder domestic ammonia production in various countries. In recent years, China has continuously invested in building ethylene and propylene production capacity to achieve self-sufficiency. Countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, and Vietnam are also expected to follow suit. Although production capacity in Asia is rapidly expanding, US raw materials will continue to flow to the Eurasian region to alleviate the local structural shortage of these two hydrocarbons. 2023Year and2024year,The growth of ultra-large gas transport ships will increase significantly, and this situation may impact demand growth and reduce expected earnings.. Medium-sized gas carriers will also face similar situations.For smaller ship types, the fleet growth rate is more moderate, allowing for greater profitability..
